Music: The Romance of Bootlegged Audio-Cassettes

A couple of years ago, as a new blogger, I wrote a paean to the long-playing record (LP). I still believe that a true music connoisseur will always prefer listening to LPs than to compact discs (CDs). CDs provide crystal-clear sound, but sound soulless. LPs on the other hand can be temperamental and are high-maintenance. Only someone who truly loves music will take the trouble of owning, maintaining and playing LPs. The sound of an LP is so rich and natural. LPs have personalities of their own. CDs do not.

Besides, perfection is not always everything it is cracked up to be, anyway. A little bit of imperfection always makes anything more interesting. Please read my blog on the long-playing record to find out more about that particular subject.

Today, while surfing the Internet, I stumbled across an astonishingly powerful cover version of “Almost Cut My Hair”; a classic 1969 song by Crosby, Stills, Nash and Young (CSNY). Listening to it brought back a flood of memories, of youth and life in college in India, when the most pressing concern we had was whether we had enough money to buy a quarter of rum. I still remember the beat-up old CSNY LP (which contained this song) that a friend of mine loaned me in 1984. I rushed to dub the LP onto a Sony audio-cassette.

Those were innocent, fun-filled days when my friends and I would gather at my home to listen to bootlegged audio-cassettes. Much of the music I still listen to today I first heard on an audio-cassette. I still remember where I was and what I was doing when I first listened to the Who’s “Baba O’Riley” with its beautiful violin solo. I borrowed a bootleg cassette of the “Who’s Next” album from a friend. He was very reluctant to loan it to me. I don’t blame him. I would have been reluctant too.
I used to take a bus back from my college in Matunga to my home in Bandra. I wasted no time and started listening to the cassette the moment I got onto the bus. I had a brand-new Walkman, gifted to me by my uncle who lived in the US. This was 1984, and owning a Walkman in India back then was a big deal. I remember playing “Baba O’Riley” on the Walkman in the bus, and as it wound its way through the slum of Dharavi, the violin solo at the end of the song came through the headphones. The hair on the back of my neck stood up. I had never heard anything so beautiful, so immediate. I wanted to grab hold of the passenger sitting next to me and say “Listen to this!”

I had many enjoyable evenings (and afternoons) listening to bootlegged audio-cassettes of “Who’s Next”. The audio-cassette had an audible hiss and eventually wore out. When this happened the spool would get entangled in the tape recorder, and I would painstakingly unspool it and make sure the tape did not break. I was a pretty good “cassette surgeon”. But bootlegged audio-cassettes were all that broke college students could afford back in those days. Besides, it wasn’t easy to get original albums of the music I wanted to listen to, since these albums were simply not available in India at the time. Therefore, bootlegged cassettes were the only way to go.

This was how it worked. Someone you knew usually knew somebody who had an elder brother who owned the Cream’s “Disraeli Gears” LP. Since you were a big fan of Eric Clapton and the song “Sunshine of Your Love”, you made it a point to get know the somebody in question. Over tea and a cigarette at the corner tea-shop, you begged and pleaded with him to speak to his elder brother and ask him to loan you his copy of the “Disraeli Gears” LP for just a day. You impressed upon him how careful you were with other people’s things, especially other people’s LPs (this was true).

After much coaxing, you got the LP you wanted. Then you ran home and promptly taped it on the best Sony audio-cassette you had, and invited all your friends to drop by and have a listen. I was always the “music guy” back in college, which made me pretty popular. Some of the best friends I made were at these music listening sessions we had. I turned on a lot of people to rock and jazz music. I often wonder what happened to all of those people, and whether they still listen to “Sunshine of Your Love” and “Almost Cut My Hair”.

The last time I was in the US, I met an old buddy of mine from the 1980s who now lives there. He is wealthy, married and has a family; he is a poster-child for the successful Indian immigrant. He picked me up from the airport. While we were driving back to his home, he turned on the radio, and the Who song “The Seeker” came on. He turned to me and said; “I first heard this at your place more than twenty years ago”. Then we both proceeded to sing the lyrics of the song at the top of our lungs all the way home. For a few moments, the years melted away and we were teenagers again.

The next time I get home, I will try and find the old bootlegged cassettes of “Sunshine of Your Love” and “More Than A Feeling” and play them. I now own these albums on CD, but listening to music on CD just doesn’t give me the same thrill.

Those old carefree days are gone forever. But maybe those memories can be recaptured for just a little while when I listen to those old bootlegged cassettes. Baba O’Riley still lives (fans of the Who will know what I am talking about).

India: An Economic Prediction

This is probably the first blog where I am making an economic prediction. Let me start by saying I am not a financial expert. Many (including me) will say that there are thousands of people far more qualified than me when it comes to predicting India’s GDP and stock market growth. And all of them will be right. I am only an amateur economist. I do not have a PhD, and I do not have the expertise to run complicated mathematical models of economic data. Nevertheless, I will persevere in making my own predictions, because as everyone knows, economics is the “dismal science”, and my guess is as good as anybody else’s.

So here goes. India’s GDP grew at a very healthy 7.9% last quarter, on the back of 6.1% for the quarter before that. We are talking real (inflation-adjusted) growth here, not nominal growth. Therefore, India’s real GDP growth for the six months of this financial year stands at 7%. Considering the GDP growth rates in the rest of the world at the moment, 7% is very healthy indeed. In addition, India’s stock markets have risen over 80% in this calendar year alone.

The key question is: will this GDP and stock market growth continue over the next six months?

Some pundits are now saying that the recession is over as far as India is concerned, and the time has come again for celebration. Let the good times roll! I suggest caution, for the reasons outlined below.

First, let us look at the stock markets. In business school, one is taught to look at “fundamental value” of any stock before buying it. Is the Indian stock market currently overvalued, undervalued or correctly valued? I would say that it is overvalued at the moment. It is not domestic investors who are flooding the Indian stock markets with money, but American fund houses and investors. Why American investors? Because the rate of borrowing in the US is ridiculously low right now, thanks to the recession.

Imagine if you could borrow money at 2% and get a return of 20% on that money. You would make a killing. That is precisely what is happening right now. Interest rates in the US are at artificially low levels right now, and these low rates are not sustainable. Sometime in the next six months, US interest rates will rise, as the economy comes out of a painful recession. The US Fed will then start concentrating on controlling inflation, and they will do this by raising interest rates. Also, investors (especially the Chinese) are beginning to get nervous about the returns they are getting on their US investments (Treasury bonds). The Chinese want higher returns on the US $ 1 trillion they have invested in US Treasury bonds. If they don’t get it, they may pull out some of their money and invest it elsewhere. So sooner rather than later, the US Federal Reserve is going to hike interest rates.
When that happens, the plug will be pulled on the Indian stock markets, as the easy money dries up. So, Indian stock prices will fall. I predict that this will happen in the first quarter of 2010.

Second, let us look at India’s GDP growth. Most of the stimulus in the Indian economy today is being created by the government through its borrowing and demand creation schemes. The largest of these is the implementation of the Sixth Pay Commission which has put billions of dollars into the pockets of India’s millions of under-performing government bureaucrats. This has stimulated consumer demand which in turn, has increased demand for goods and services, which has contributed to 7.9% GDP growth in the last quarter. Is this sustainable for much longer?

The answer is no. Unless the Indian private sector now steps in and starts borrowing and expanding capacity rapidly, GDP growth will stall. The private sector expanded capacity rapidly between 2004 and 2008, and they feel that at the moment, there is a surplus capacity of goods and services in the system. Unless the private sector starts investing, job and money creation will not happen and domestic demand and GDP will not grow.

When do I expect this (increased private sector investment) to happen? Not before the last quarter of 2010. By then, the recession should have played itself out and they should feel confident enough.

The last and probably most important factor influencing India’s GDP growth is inflation. The government proudly trumpets the fact that Wholesale Price Inflation is below 2%. This claim is ludicrous. Food inflation in India currently stands at 18%, thanks to a poor monsoon and harvest last year. In a country where spending on food is the highest part of the household budget (for at least 50% of the population), this is alarming.

There is no reason to assume that food inflation will come down in the near future. There is much the government can do to alleviate it in terms of optimizing the food supply chain “from farm to fork”, but so far, we have only heard lots of talk on this front, and no action.


In addition, as the world economy recovers the price of petroleum will start increasing again. Combine increasing petroleum prices with already rampant food inflation, and you have all the ingredients for high inflation levels for the first half of 2010. High inflation means lower savings and lower real GDP growth.
There is much the Indian government can do to improve the situation; such as rapid disinvestment of Public Sector Units (PSUs), increased spending on infrastructure, improving the food supply chain to reduce waste and lower costs, etc. But the government’s record on making and rapidly implementing firm policy decisions is poor, and unlikely to improve anytime soon.

So what is my final prediction?

The stock markets will come down by 15% to 20% in the first half of 2010. Real (Consumer Price) inflation will go up to between 8% and 10%. Real GDP growth will come down for the first half of the year – to about 5% to 5.5%.

We will see light at the end of the tunnel during the second half of 2010, when borrowing by the private sector will start increasing (even though it will be at higher interest rates). This will spur capacity expansion and job creation and a rise in the stock markets and GDP growth. If we have a good monsoon in 2010, we should end with GDP growth of about 7 to 7.5% for the year ending March 31, 2011, on the back of a strong economic performance in the second half of that fiscal year.

Of course, all of what I have just said could be completely inaccurate and things may in fact, turn out just the opposite. But this is my prediction! Your comments (including any mistakes I may have made in my assumptions in this blog) are welcome.